Training Notes May and June

Saturday, May 1st - Miwok 100K
Sunday 5/2- Off
Monday 5/3- Off
Tuesday 5/4- 2 hours
Wed -5/5 -  2 hours
Thursday 5/6 - 2 hours (2 x 30 at LT, uphill on treadmill - first running, second walking)
Friday 5/7 - 2 hours
Saturday 5/8 - 3.5 hours
Sunday 5/9 - 3.5 hours
Monday 5/10 - 3 hours (2 am, 1 pm)
Tuesday 5/11 - 3 hours (2 am, 1 pm)
Wednesday 5/12 - 2 hours (35 min at LT - 7% incline 6.7 + 35 min at LT 13.5% incline 4.0 walk/run)
Thursday 5/13 - 3 hours (2 am, 1 pm)
Friday 5/14 - 2 hours (am)
Saturday 5/15 - 6 hours
Sunday off
Monday 5/17 - 3 hours. First Day on the Sierra (2:30 am - Michigan Bluff to Deadwood; 0:30 pm, Robie Pt to Finish Line and Back)
Tuesday 5/18 - 3 hours. 1:30 trying to find my way from Michigan Bluff to Bath Road (unsuccessful attempt subject of a different posting). 1:00 track work (4 x 1000 at 4:03 minutes). 0:30 Stadium to Robie Pt and back.
Wednesday 5/19 - 3:30 hours  Michigan Bluff to Pump and back
Thursday 5/20 - 3:00 hours. 2:20 for 2 X MB to El Dorado and back (1st time running 38 min, 2nd time fast walking 42 minutes).  0:40 pm from Robie Point to No Hands and back.
Friday 5/21 - 2:20 hours. Robie Point to Hwy 49 and back.  Very slow.
Satruday 5/22 - 6:00 hours.  Michigan Bluff to Last chance and back.
Sunday 5/23 - 2:15 hours in snow Soda Springs Road
Monday 5/24 - 3:10 total. 2:20 am (Volcano Canyon) and 0:50 pm (No Hands Bridge to Robbie and back)
Tuesday 5/25 - 3:00 total. 2:00 am (Soda Springs Road in Snow) 1:00 pm (Track to Robbie and back plus 4 x 1000 @ 4 minutes).
Wednesday 5/26 - 3:24 total.  Foresthill to Driver's Flat (did FH to Cal street twice, forgot keys).
Thursday 5/27 - 2:00 total.  2 X LT. First 45 minutes at 7% and 6.7 pace.  Second 35 min 14% and 4.00.  Cut it short because of pain in left calf.
Friday 5/28  - Off. First day off in 12 days.
Saturday 5/29 - 9:00 hours.  45 miles.  From start of N44 (couldn't get to Robinson Flats because of snow) to Foresthill and unto Rucky Chucky.
Sunday 5/30 - Off.  2+ hours at gym.
Monday 5/31- 4:00 hours.  22 miles.  From 2 miles north of GreenGate to Western States Finish Line.
Tuesday 6/1 - 2:00 hours slow running 10minute pace, treadmill @6000 ft.  50 minutes on bike, relatively hard. 1+ hr at gym.
Wednesday 6/2:  2 hours at 6000 feet (8 25 second strides).  1 hour gym.  Didn't feel great
Thursday 6/3: 2 hours (45 minutes at LT 7% incline 6.7 pace, 30 minutes 13.5% incline at 4 pace). 50 minutes bike relatively hard for quads.  90 minutes strength training.  All at altitude
Friday 6/4: 2 hours.
Saturday 6/5:   6+ hours, 27 miles, Michigan Bluff to Last Chance and back to Michigan Bluff
Sunday 6/6: OFF - Taper officially begins today.

Miwok 100K

Rule of thumb is to double the finish time at Miwok 100k to estimate the finish time at Western States 100M.  If that's the case, 24 hours is not looking so good for me.  I finished Miwok in 12 hours and 20 minutes, despite feeling quite strong on the first 57 miles (the last 4 miles are another story altogether).  This puts my Western States finish closer to 25 hours.

A more careful analysis of the Race Results of those runners who finished Western States in under 24 hours in 2009 tells me that a 10:30 Miwok is an even better barometer for a sub-24 Western States finish.  There is no way I could have finished Miwok in 10:30! Not even if I had not come apart (as I did) during the last four miles.

So, I've got two choices.  Go hard for a sub-24 at WS from the very beginning and risk a DNF somewhere after 50 miles, or run within my limits, reduce the probability of a DNF, and get to the finish line in whatever time I can.

I think I'll take a finish over a DNF any time.  I'll still try to get there sub-24, but I'm going to curve my "at-all-cost" approach.