Rule of thumb is to double the finish time at Miwok 100k to estimate the finish time at Western States 100M. If that's the case, 24 hours is not looking so good for me. I finished Miwok in 12 hours and 20 minutes, despite feeling quite strong on the first 57 miles (the last 4 miles are another story altogether). This puts my Western States finish closer to 25 hours.
A more careful analysis of the Race Results of those runners who finished Western States in under 24 hours in 2009 tells me that a 10:30 Miwok is an even better barometer for a sub-24 Western States finish. There is no way I could have finished Miwok in 10:30! Not even if I had not come apart (as I did) during the last four miles.
So, I've got two choices. Go hard for a sub-24 at WS from the very beginning and risk a DNF somewhere after 50 miles, or run within my limits, reduce the probability of a DNF, and get to the finish line in whatever time I can.
I think I'll take a finish over a DNF any time. I'll still try to get there sub-24, but I'm going to curve my "at-all-cost" approach.